Prospective scenarios for 2050
These prospective scenarios follow and complement two work projects carried out by the think tank Futura-Mobility in 2018 and 2019: the publication of Capsules Intemporelles, a collection of short fiction stories about mobility of the future, co-developed with Anne-Caroline Paucot; Futura-Mobility’s ‘convictions’, presented on its website, setting out the reflections of the think tank on the challenges of tomorrow’s mobility.
At the turn of 2021, we have produced development scenarios for our world. By no means predictions, they explore trends observed or supposed, pushed to extremes in a not so distant future (2050). We have, of course, tried to maintain a certain degree of consistency within each scenario. The scenarios have been updated in 2023.
The future certainly holds surprises. Doubtless it will be built of bricks combining these scenarios and modules yet unknown today. These scenarios are envisioned for the whole world. Reality might turn out to be a mix of these models, depending on geographical areas, with, perhaps, the emergence of ‘blocs’ that follow mainly one or another of these models.
These scenarios are intended as tools to help companies prepare for these uncertainties and consider the different strategic avenues to their future. They have been shared and discussed with over 100 professionals from around 15 companies. The deliverable is structured around three scenarios, set out below, based on a common framework:
- illustrations, to swiftly draw the reader into the imaginary world of the scenario
- a page of text describing the scenario as a whole
- indicators set on axes to provide a global view of the various criteria depicting society, resources, and geopolitics
- a page describing mobility, in particular, within the scenario
- a short fiction story based on a character and his/her mobility problem in this context
- questioning – further reflection – about the future of our mobility companies in the scenario
